Did the Mets surprise us all?

In December of 2018, the Mets and Mariners lined up in a massive deal that appeared to have been won by the Mariners. It’s time to rethink that.

The New York Mets and Seattle Mariners launched a massive deal that made the Mets acquire the very close Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano and everything that comes with it.

When the move was first announced, fans everywhere couldn’t believe the Mets would trade two top prospects as defensive tackle Jared Kielnik and base bowler Justin Dunn. The deal was immediately described as a loss by the Mets by fans and critics in the industry alike (see feedback from New York Post, ESPNAnd Yahoo Sports).

Here we are a month and a half into the 2022 regular season, and Robinson was on the verge of signing a new contract with the San Diego Padres after the Mets opted to release him, prompting a reconsideration of this once heavy trade billed as a win by the Sailors and a loss from before the mets.

sailors

Jay Bruce

RHPs Anthony Swarzak, Gerson Bautista

From Jared Kielnik

RHP Justin Dunn

Mets get

INF Robinson Kano

RHB Edwin Diaz

$20 million in cash

Robinson Canoe Trade: Who Won?

*Note: Statistics are valid as of the morning of May 13, 2022.

Who did the sailors get in the deal?

We’ll start with Jay Bruce, one of the most feared left-handed zombies when he was in his prime. Bruce joined the Mariners at the age of 32 and has continued to struggle for the second consecutive season, possibly signaling the end of his football days.

Bruce played in 47 games for the Mariners before being traded again with the Phillies. After brief stints at Philly and the Yankees, Bruce retired from professional baseball. His Mariners career consisted of 14 home runs, 28 RBI and a slash line of .212/.283/.533.

Anthony Swarzak And Gerson Bautista They were two unexciting arms shipped from New York to Seattle in this deal. A devoted serviceman at the prime of his life, Swarzak made just 15 appearances for the Mariners before being traded away early in the 2019 season. His 5.27 ERA and six home runs over 13 innings did not make a good appearance for the man of his age. 33 years old at the time.

The Bautista Mariners’ tenure was worse than that of the Swarzak. He’s made eight appearances for the club, scored an ERA of 11.00, been disqualified seven times, and walked nine in the most innings. He was left out of the club’s 40-man squad at the conclusion of the 2020 season and was recently seen in the Mexican League at the Estadio Mariachis de Guadalajara.

Young soccer player Jared Kielnik had reached 69th place in the MLB per MLB pipeline and was ranked as the “highest potential cap in the Mets”. Many said it should be the only unattainable prospect in Kano’s trade talks.

He was 19 years old at the time and routinely received rave reviews for his instruments, with many saying he had the opportunity to be a true star and five-gadget player, a label that is hard to find in today’s game.

Kielnik’s tenure in Seattle was, in a word, horrific. He made his debut last season for M at the young age of just 21, his .181/.265/.350 slash was ugly but probably due to his young age and growing pains. During his first 30 games of the season, Kilinic somehow got worse, putting in a slash of 0.140/.219/.509, making 37.5 percent of his board appearances. Since his debut last year, he’s been deserving of -0.5 oWAR and -1.3 dWAR per baseball reference.

Justin Dunn He was another potential client who was shipped from New York to Seattle and he, like all others in the trade but Kielnik, is now in another squad. Dunn made a 25th start for the Mariners from 2019-20 and scored a respectable 3.94 ERA in over 102 innings. Walking was a problem for him and the Sailors turned him on to the Cincinnati Reds this off-season in the Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker deal.

Who did the Mets get in the deal?

Starting with Kano, the Mets were gaining an elderly second baseman who could no longer play a good second baseman in defense. Kanu was exiting 80 games of PED suspension and seemed to have pulled himself out of the Hall of Fame conversation he had been in the middle of his entire career.

Joining the Mets at the age of 36 with several years remaining on his massive 10-year $205 million contract, many in the industry were concerned about production slowdowns and PED issues. While he immediately called up Max Scherzer on his first game at bat as a Metropolitan, injuries became an issue for Kano and he was hitting at a higher rate than at any other time in his career.

After a poor showing in 2019 and a bit of showing up in the 2020 season that was cut short due to COVID, Cano was again suspended for using PED, this time for 162 games, effectively ending his tenure with the Mets. He made a brief comeback in the big leagues this season, but the Mets DFA released him after hitting one home run and earning a .195/.233/.268 slash in 12 games. Finally, Cano published 2.2 oWAR with the Mets in parts of three seasons.

The gift that keeps giving for the Mets, Edwin Diaz continued to dominate the hitters as he did for the first three years of his career in Seattle. Starting off the season with a 1.96 ERA with 57 saves and an eighth place finish in the AL Cy Young race, Diaz was included in the deal to make Cano and his contract more attractive and despite having his fair share of ups and downs for the Mets, his tenure was successful to Pretty much in New York.

After a 5.59 ERA effort in 2019, Diaz rebounded and scored 1.75 ERA and a ridiculous 17.5 SO/9 in 2020 and went on to succeed last season with 32 saves and a career best 0.4 HR/9. To start the 2022 season, Diaz has 14 games under his belt, made seven saves and has a 1.93 ERA with 24 strokes in just 14 innings. He’s been deserving of 2.4 bWAR since joining the Mets, a number that has been pared down due to his poor performance in 2019 but will continue to climb as his success continues.

So, who won the deal?

The easy answer here is the Mets. This is a comment no one thought would be made at the time of this trade.

There are several different ways to look at it and one can come to the same realization. Just by looking closely at the WAR among the trading players, the Mariners acquired players that ended up with a combined value of -0.5 bWAR while the Mets ended up with 3.6 bWAR as of now.



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