The college football season continues on Wednesday with another foursome, all featuring Power Five rivals.
Top billing is the Holiday Bowl between Oregon and ACC contestants North Carolina battle it out, but the other three games have plenty of intrigue, and it’s Kansas’ first bowl game since 2008 against Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl.
Here’s a bet for each game including a pair of straight underdogs:
For more better bets, check out The Early Reed with Chris “The Bear” Fallica
Central Florida prediction vs. Duke selection
We’ll start by unsubscribing, because UCF has quite a few of them. The team juggled its quarterbacks this season as John Rhys Plumley faced dual threat transfer injuries all season, but frequently used backup Mickey Keane to hit the transfer gate, leaving the potentially injured JRP as the only option at quarterback. It should be noted that Plumlee left the AAC game and later returned. I wouldn’t say it’s a slam dunk he plays, and third player Thomas Castellanos struggled a lot in that match.
Also, leading receiver Ryan O’Keefe hit the gate as well as linebacker Jeremiah Jean Bates, who finished third in tackles.
If Plumlee plays, his legs will be used to set up the passing game, but that’s a big problem against a Duke defense that ranks 15th in Rush/EPA this season. If the Blue Devils are going to keep UCF behind the sticks and force the Knights’ poor passing game to punt, Duke should be able to cover the sometimes explosive offense.
Meanwhile, the Duke offense had a stellar season in the ACC, ranking 21st in EPA/Play with quarterback Riley Leonard leading the unit. UCF’s defense is strong, ranking 32nd in terms of success rate, but I’d be way behind the likes of Jean Baptise and along with the Blue Devils would be excited to beat them.
Pick: Duke -3
Kansas vs. Arkansas prediction and selection
This is shaping up to be a penalty shootout. Both teams struggled on defense all season, each just outside the top 100 in terms of EPA/Play (Kansas 121, Arkansas 104) and each team was strong on offense.
The Jayhawks had to navigate the quarterback due to Jaylon Daniels’ shoulder injury midseason, but he’s back and anchored a unit that ranks fourth in EPA/Play this season. Arkansas has several people pulled off the roster, including star safety Miles Slasher as well as defensive coordinator Barry Odom who is taking over from UNLV. This defense will not be on par with the already low level in the game.
On the flip side, the Razorbacks lost top pass catcher Jadon Haslewood as well as fellow starter Ketron Jackson, but Jefferson will be at center and most important after he reaffirms his commitment to the team.
I expect Arkansas to play big after big play with a huge size advantage on the offensive line and the ability to hit explosive plays. The team is top ten in explosive success rate and Jefferson is a devastating runner, running for 510 yards in 10 games this season.
KU is on the rise, but the defense still needs work, allowing more than three points per drive (sixth worst in the country).
I don’t expect too many stops on this one and would gladly play a game where each team must find five touchdowns and push it into the mid-30s.
Pick: Kansas +2.5
North Carolina vs. Oregon State prediction and selection
These are two elite offenses with two of the best quarterbacks in the country, but the Ducks clearly have the advantage in a predictable shootout.
Oregon’s offense is No. 1 in success rate and top 10 in explosive play rate and will go up against a North Carolina defense that ranks 10th in success rate on the defensive side of the ball. North Carolina’s defense is under little pressure, generating the second fewest sacks in the country.
The Bo Nix offense and the Ducks should do just fine in this game against the worst P5 defense in the nation despite losing play caller Kenny Dillingham to Arizona State. Oregon State’s offensive line has allowed the fewest sacks in the country and ranks third in line yards, and expected them to dictate terms at the line of scrimmage.
I don’t trust Oregon State to cover an inflated point spread right now with all the opt-out news, and will instead look for the team’s total. The Ducks have scored 40 or more points in eight games this season, and 30 or more in 10. I expect this game to be full of fireworks and for Oregon to cruise into the 40s again.
The numbers aren’t widely available yet, but a team with a total of 42.5 or less is worth playing.
Pick: Team Oregon. Overall 44.5
Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Selection
Ole Miss’s season split down the stretch, losing four of five because the offense couldn’t get the gear. Now, they head to the Texas Bowl to try to salvage an eight-win season with a victory, but I’m worried they’ll be able to outlast a tough Texas Tech defensive front.
The Red Raiders are 18th in tackles for loss this season and 24th in streak. More importantly, the team ranks 10th in touchdown percentage in the red zone, so they silence opponents and catch field goals when their backs are facing the end zone.
TTU’s massive rushing defense will make life hell for an Ole Miss offense that likes to keep it on the ground to open up the passing game. The team ranks in the top 10 in rushing percentage and has plenty of talent on the field, including freshman Quinshone Judkins, who rushed for 1,476 yards. However, the team’s offensive line leaves some to be desired, as Kevin’s group draws on talent from Skill center players, ranking outside the top 60 in terms of line yards.
The Texas Tech offense has been up and down with injuries to the quarterback, but freshman Brian Morton and Tyler Schoeff have both shown they are capable. Shough will start the bowl game, but don’t be surprised if Morton sees time under center. Overall, the offense was about the national average in terms of success rate.
The Ole Miss defense fell late in the season, finishing outside the top 100 in success rate, so this TTU offense that finished inside the top 20 in red zone touchdown percentage should be able to move the ball and put points on the board.
Both teams play fast, each inside the top 13 nationally in plays per minute, so expect points, but I’ll be on the side of the underdog who has superior defense and similar offense. It might come down to who got the ball in the end, and in this case, I want the points.
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
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