Kentucky finished roughly 2022 fairly well with an 86-63 win over Louisville, but they are 2-2 in their last four games with a loss to Missouri leaving them 9-4. John Calipari’s Wildcats is still looking for his first SEC win of the season and they have a chance tonight at Rupp Arena against the 12-1 LSU Tigers.
Matt McMahon’s Tigers had an easy schedule to start the year, but they proved themselves last time against a 13th-ranked Arkansas team. They beat the Razorbacks, 60-57, and if they can go 2-0 in conference, they will establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with. At one of the toughest conferences in the country.
The last time UK faced the Tigers, they fell 89-75 to Missouri. How will they fare against the Bayou Bengals tonight? Let’s get into the odds and I’ll tell you how I bet on this one.
The Wildcats didn’t look very good going 9-4, their best win being a 73-69 win over Michigan, but that’s the only Power 5 team they’ve ever beaten (Louisville not counting).
Otherwise it was a very disappointing start for the team that brought back last year’s Oscar Chebue as National Player of the Year. Tshiebwe is not wrong, he averaged 16.5 points and 13.6 rebounds a game, but the secondary scoring was spread inconsistently between Cason Wallace, Antonio Reeves and Jacob Toppin.
However, the numbers still love them, they are ranked 14th in KenPom, 19th in modified offense, 30th in modified defense, and 13th in the country in offensive efficiency.
LSU has been very impressive, but not really tested. They had their best clear win last week against Arkansas. They managed to force Arkansas into a very bad shooting night, which is something they do as much as any team.
The Tigers allow their opponents to shoot only 27.6% from three, the 13th lowest in the country. Kentucky only shoots 20.7 threes per game, but they shoot 39% from depth, so it’s an important part of their offense. If they run off the line, this game becomes low-scoring and that’s exactly what LSU loves.
I think Kentucky pulls this game off in the end because Tshiebwe might get the best of LSU big man KJ Williams down-low, but I don’t see a world where the Cats win by double digits.
LSU +9.5
-110
mushroom
LSU Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats
01/03 7:00 PM
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