With his party struggling in the midterms, his economic leadership being heavily criticized and his overall job approval at less than 40%, a clear majority of Democrats in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll say the party should replace Joe Biden as the presidential candidate in 2024.
In the upcoming November midterm elections, registered voters divide 47%-46% between the Republican and Democratic candidate in the House district, historically not enough to prevent typical losses in the first half of the period. A potential voter model has a Republican-Democratic split of 51%-46%.
Looking back two years later, only 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favor Biden for the 2024 nomination; 56% want the party to choose someone else.
For their part, Republicans and GOP-leaning independents were split 47% to 46% on whether Donald Trump should be their nominee for 2024 — a 20-point drop for Trump compared to his 2020 nomination.
The unpopularity of both numbers may encourage aspiring third parties, although they rarely do well.
In the head-to-head rematch, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, found the Biden-Trump contest 48%-46% primarily related. Among registered voters, the numbers reverse to 46%-48%. That’s even while 52% of Americans say Trump should be charged with a crime in any of the matters in which he is subject to a federal investigation, similar to the opinions after the January 6 storming of the US Capitol.
See the PDF for full results, graphs, and tables.
On the issues, the survey found broad opposition to the US Supreme Court’s decision to repeal the constitutional right to abortion and a significant Democratic advantage of confidence to deal with the issue. But there is no indication that it affects propensity to vote compared to other issues: four ranks higher in importance and two of them—the economy in general, and inflation specifically—work strongly in the Republican Party’s favour.
Biden and the House of Representatives
A president’s standing is usually crucial to his party’s midterm fortunes — and Biden is awash in water. 39% of Americans approve of his job performance while 53% disagree, about where he has been steadily last year.
Specifically in terms of the economy, with inflation approaching a 40-year high, it has an approval rating of 36% while 57% is against – a deficit of 21 points.
Each election has its own dynamic, but in the midterm elections since 1946, when the president got more than 50% of the job approval, his party has lost an average of 14 seats. When the president’s approval was less than 50% – as it is with Biden by a large margin now – his party lost an average of 37 seats.
There’s a slightly better score for Biden: 40% say he’s done a lot or a good amount as president, up from 35% last fall. Usually this is a lukewarm measure. It has averaged 43% across four presidents in 11 previous polls since 1993.
There is one more thing Democrats can hold on to; Their current results are better than last November, when Republicans led in national House voting preferences by 10 percentage points, 51%-41% — the largest midterm Republican advance in ABC/Post polls going back 40 years.
It is also true that House polls provide only a rough measure of the final seats won or lost, in what, after all, are local races, influenced by incumbency, fraud, candidate traits, and local and national issues.
Problems
Democrats are not without ammunition in midterm campaigns: As noted, Americans broadly reject the US Supreme Court’s ruling repealing the constitutional right to abortion – 29% supported it, 64% opposed it. (In fact, 53% strongly oppose it, versus 21% strongly support it.)
The public trusts the Democratic Party to outperform the Republican Party in addressing abortion by 20 points. In another measure, while 31% say the Democratic Party is too lenient on abortion, much more, 50%, say the Republican Party is too restrictive.
But if abortion prevents Republicans from nationalizing elections entirely around the economy, it does not reduce the economic discontent of the public.
74 percent say the economy is in poor shape, up from 58 percent in the spring after Biden took office. The Republican Party leads the Democrats by 16 points in confidence for dealing with the economy in general and by 19 points in confidence for dealing with inflation. Just as important, 84% describe the economy as a major issue in their vote for Congress and 76% say the same about inflation. Far fewer, 62%, describe abortion as a major issue.
Other issues also distinguish the parties. In addition to the economy, Republicans are expected to focus on crime in the closing weeks of the campaigns. They lead by 14 points in confidence to handle the matter, and it is very important that 69% get.
In contrast, Democrats have a significant 23-point confidence advantage for dealing with climate change, although it is very important that it is much lower, 50%.
Parties are working closely on two other issues – education and schools, Democrats +6, very important to 77%; And immigration, which is basically an equal division, is very important at 61%.
When evaluated as a combination of importance and party preference, inflation and the economy top the list, followed by abortion, then climate change, crime, education, and immigration.
While inflation, the economy, and abortion are marquee issues, one stands out for another reason: The Republicans’ 14-point advantage in confidence to tackle crime matches its biggest advantage since 1991. Among independents, the GOP led by 34.
More broadly, Americans are evenly divided, 42-42%, on which party they trust most to deal with the major problems the country faces in the next few years. This compares to the 5-point average for Democrats’ advantage on this question in more than 100 ABC/Post surveys since 1982.
The comparison with the 2018 midterm elections is instructive: Then, 55-39% of the public preferred to see Congress controlled by Democrats, serving as an oversight of Trump, rather than Republicans, in support of Trump’s agenda. Today, 48% prefer the Republican Congress, to serve as a check on Biden. 45% Democrats support his agenda.
The fact that Democrats don’t follow closely in views on party control gives them some hope, as does their leadership on the abortion issue. Historically, due to low turnout, Democrats need an edge, not just parity, in pre-election estimates.
Transformation
72 percent of registered voters say they are certain to vote in congressional elections in their district; A little more, 76%, said so in October 2018, the year when turnout reached its mid-term post-war high.
In another measure, 66% said voting in this election is more important to them than it was in the previous midterm elections, as it was in 2018.
The issues do not materially differentiate the intended turnout. For example, among registered voters who describe abortion as a major issue, 75% say they are certain to vote, while among those who describe the economy as a major issue, almost identical 74% say they will vote.
In fact, on abortion, supporters of the Supreme Court ruling are more willing than its critics to say that voting is more important to them in this election than in previous midterms, 73% versus 64%. Also, 76% of supporters of the ruling say they are certain to vote, as do 70% of those who oppose the ruling.
Intent to exit is influenced by other factors. Among all adults, it is much higher among whites — 72% certain to vote — than among blacks (55%) or Latinos (46%) — a finding that benefits Republicans, whose support is much stronger among whites.
groups
Beyond the differential turnout, a weakening of the midterm voting preference among black and Hispanic voters may compound Democrats’ concerns.
While Democratic House candidates lead their Republican opponents by 61 points among black adults registered to vote, that compares to at least 79-point margins in exit polls in the past four midterms.
This survey’s sample of Hispanics registered to vote is too small to analyze reliably, but the competition between them appears much closer than recent Democratic margins — 40 points in 2018, 27 points in 2014 and 22 points in 2010.
Meanwhile, Republican candidates show some strength among registered voters without a college degree, +11 points in voting preference compared to an even split in the 2018 ABC News exit poll.
Factor: Non-college adults are 8 points less likely than those with four-year degrees to say they are not only concerned but dissatisfied with the current rate of inflation. Findings among other groups do not provide evidence for the hypothesis that abortion rule might strengthen Democrats, compared to years past, among some women.
Women younger than 40 support the Democratic candidate in their district by 19 points, but got that by 43 points in the 2018 poll on polling day. Suburban women were evenly split between parties (44-47% Democrat-Republican), roughly the same among men Suburban (45-50% Democrat-Republican).
Independent women are +5 GOP in voting preference; Independent guys, basically the same thing, +3. Independents generally – often a swing group of voters – split 42-47% between Democratic and Republican candidates. This is a group that voted Democrats by 12 points in 2018 — but voted Republicans by 14 points in 2014 (when the Republican Party won 13 House seats) and by 19 points in 2010 (when the Republican Party won 63 seats).
Finally, there are some highlights of Biden’s approval rating. It has reached new lows in terms of support among liberals (68%), Southerners (33%) and people in the middle to upper middle income range (34%). And his strong approval among black adults – among the most hardened Democratic groups – is 31% in a low-profile career.
methodology
The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone September 18-21, 2022, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults, including 908 registered voters. The results have a sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. The partisan splits in the full sample are 28%-24%-41%, Democrat-Republican-Independent, and 27%-26%-40% among registered voters.
Copyright © 2022 ABC, Inc.
.
[ad_2]
