Protests have continued across Iran despite government crackdowns and state media reports claiming that protesters put an end to their gatherings.
The protests, which have entered their eleventh day, erupted with the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died in a hospital three days after she was arrested by the morality police in Tehran and taken to a “rehabilitation centre”. Non-compliance with the rules of the state veil.
Since then, protests have erupted in more than 40 cities, including the capital, Tehran, where dozens were reported to have been killed in clashes with security forces. At least 1,200 have been arrested, according to state-backed media.
The marches that began with calls for justice for Amini’s killing turned into a larger protest, uniting a range of factions and social classes, with many calling for the overthrow of the regime.
Here’s what you need to know about the protests:
What is different about the current protests?
Today’s protests are no different from previous anti-government movements, but the core issues driving today’s mobilization are different, experts say, and arguably make them more relevant.
Esfandyar Patmanglij, founder and CEO of the exchange, said previous waves of protests – in 2019, 2021 and most recently this year – were primarily driven by economic grievances. & Bazaar Foundation in London, adding that it was one of the main reasons the protests did not spread to other segments of society.
“This is different, because what people are really asking for is a more important kind of political change,” Batmanjlig said, adding that this movement facilitated “the generation of solidarity between different social groups.”
Sanam Vakil, a senior research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at London think tank Chatham House, said Sunday’s protests are also mobilizing young Iranians with access to the Internet who did not know Iran before the Islamic Republic.
How safe does the government feel now?
The government doesn’t seem to feel more vulnerable than before, said Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C. “Maybe they miscalculate here.”
Experts expect protests to escalate. On Sunday, one of Iran’s main teachers’ unions called a nationwide strike. Labor strikes are sensitive in Iran because they bring back memories of the 1979 revolution, when collective labor was a useful tactic that helped bring down the Shah.
“I think it is very likely that we will see more strikes because strikes were happening even before that [movement]“They may end up reinforcing each other,” Parsi said, adding that the strikes could increase pressure on the government.
How likely is the government to make concessions and what would the concessions look like?
Analysts say an end to the protests is likely to come through the use of brute force rather than concessions.
The government blamed Western media for inciting the protests, referring to foreign plots. Analysts say that determines how they will be dealt with.
“If they see this as a security threat and not an issue of political expediency, they are more likely to respond with the tools of their security services,” said Batmanglij. “The government has a much greater capacity for repression than reform at this point.”
Even if the authorities make concessions through minor reforms, Wakeel said, the bigger question will be “how do you get these young women to wear their headscarves again”.
The result of saving face would be to undo the morality police, she said, adding that repealing the headscarf law entirely is unlikely. She said that holding a referendum that would allow Iranians to vote on the headscarf issue could also help calm the protests, casting doubts that that would happen as well.
At what point does government become weak, and how close is it to that point?
Despite ten days of demonstrations spreading across the country with the death toll soaring, the protests remain leaderless, with some loud and visible protestors living in exile as the government restricted internet access at home.
“This is an indigenous Iranian movement, and it is important to stress that ordinary Iranians inside the country are the catalysts for what is happening,” Vakil said.
Batmanglij said a figurehead would be necessary to negotiate the change with the government as well as to lead the movement itself internally.
The protests have a wide range of grievances, beyond the mandatory headscarf and the brutality of the state security apparatus.
It also remains unclear whether there are members within the Iranian government who understand the risks involved and are willing to press for significant change within the current power structure, Batmanglij added.
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