Research shows that climate change may cause more disruptions to flights

San Francisco — If you’ve ever traveled, chances are you’ve experienced disturbances. But recent studies from the UK suggest that global climate change could make these bumps more frequent and potentially more severe. Using satellite data, researchers from the University of Reading have estimated that a particular type of disturbance has increased by about 15% in areas along the Earth’s jet stream. The question now – what awaits the pilots and passengers?

“I think the studies are valid, but we need to do more experiments to verify them,” says Professor Fred Barris, PhD, chair of the Department of Aerospace and Energy Technology at San Jose State University.

Researchers at San Jose State are working on the kind of computer modeling that could eventually help better describe the phenomenon. But using a tabletop wind tunnel and a heating pad, Professor Barris has given us a simplified look at what happens when temperature changes shear wind.

“So what we’re seeing here is, in this case, the plane itself is developing the shear. But turbulence usually happens when you have two different air masses next to each other with different speeds, or different directions, or both,” he explains.

more: The US airline uses artificial intelligence to steer planes, and eliminates plastic to reduce its carbon footprint

And that can lead to what’s known as clear air turbulence, unexpected stretches of bumpy air at higher altitudes that aren’t caused by storms. Fellow San Jose State coach Captain Scott Miller is also a working pilot with first-hand experience.

“These are the routes I tend to take, west coast to Hawaii. And in the four years I’ve been doing that flying, I’ve seen the amount of net turbulence increase,” Capt. Miller says.

He’s careful to point out that differences in turbulence can be attributed to a variety of factors, but warming could also be in the mix.

“This is where global warming can turn into this. As the Earth heats up and that hot air radiates back into the atmosphere, those moving air currents develop shear and can end up adding to the turbulence and increasing its intensity,” he says.

more: NASA is taking research to the skies and sea to track the effects of climate change

Many pilots are now using turbulence tracking software to help identify and share altitudes and locations of fresh air and other types of turbulence among flight crews, Capt. Miller says.

But you may want to pay attention to some long-term projections. Researchers in the UK studies believe that the frequency of disturbances along North American flight paths could triple in the coming decades depending on climate change.

Back in the lab, Professor Barris says confirming the data is the first step. But if increased turbulence turns out to be a new reality for pilots and passengers, predicting its behavior could be critical.

He believes that “we can make better predictions of what’s going to happen. The data is useful, but you really need to analyze it carefully to be able to come up with prediction models.”

Models that could one day help mitigate the challenges caused by climate change.

If you are using the ABC7 News app, Click here to watch the live broadcast