Iowa caucuses 2024: Donald Trump will win Iowa Republican caucuses, ABC News projects

DES MOINES, Iowa — Donald Trump will win the Iowa Republican caucuses, ABC News projects based on the entrance poll.

The former president’s expected victory on Monday night gives him a strong start in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination as the contest moves to New Hampshire.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who was also once governor of South Carolina, are Trump’s most prominent primary rivals. They are aiming for a second-place finish in Iowa that would give them at least some momentum heading into future races.

ABC News also projects that Vivek Ramaswamy will finish in fourth place. It is a disappointing finish for the candidate who so much poured effort into the state, holding as many as nine events per day in the home stretch.

With 38% of the expected vote reporting, Trump leads in the vote count with 52% of the vote, followed by DeSantis with 20%, then Haley with 19% and then Ramaswamy with 8%.

Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party has been clear since the day he announced he would make another run for the White House 14 months ago. It can be seen in the party’s ideological shift even further to the right on cultural issues and, especially, on immigration policy.

Iowa Republicans were a clear reflection of that on Monday night, delivering the former president an emphatic victory. They channeled his anger, and his view that basically everything President Joe Biden has done has been a “disaster.” About 9 in 10 voters said they want upheaval or substantial change in how the government operates, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in the caucuses.

As clear-cut as his win was, though, Iowa has not historically played the role of kingmaker in the Republican nominating process. New Hampshire’s voters don’t take their cues from Iowa.

Here are some key takeaways:

AN INCUMBENT CAMPAIGN

This was the least suspenseful Iowa caucus in modern memory because Trump has essentially been running as an incumbent president. He’s convinced many Republicans he didn’t really lose the 2020 election to Biden, repeatedly making false claims, and has dominated the race the way someone still in office does.

He traveled sparingly to the state, holding a modest number of rallies. He spurned candidate debates. He chose to appear at court hearings as a defendant in his legal cases in New York and Washington rather than speak to Iowa voters in the final days before the voting.

The former president, who remains the party’s dominant favorite, clearly wants to move on to the general election as quickly as possible. But Iowa winnows the field more than it determines the winner.

TWISTS AND TURNS AHEAD

Inevitable can be a dangerous word, especially in New Hampshire, which holds its primary in eight days.

New Hampshire has famously delivered upsets in both parties. Haley quipped that New Hampshire “corrects” Iowa. Bush felt New Hampshire’s sting in 2000 when Senator John McCain defeated him. So did former vice president Walter Mondale when Senator Gary Hart of Colorado scored an upset in the Democratic race in 1984.

With its more moderate, educated electorate, New Hampshire presents Trump’s rivals with possibly their best opportunity to slow his march. Haley is hoping for a win there or at least a very strong showing, and after that comes a weird political lull – with the next major competitive race in South Carolina on Feb. 24.

But plenty can happen during that time. The U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 8 is scheduled to hear arguments in a case challenging whether a constitutional clause banning those who “engaged in insurrection” from holding office applies to Trump. The high court may also weigh in on whether presidential immunity protects Trump from federal charges for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss.

The criminal trial in that case is scheduled to start on March 5 – Super Tuesday – when 14 states vote in the presidential nominating process. Trump’s strength among Republican voters is beyond dispute, but the road is long and could be bumpy.

IT’S NOT THE ECONOMY

Iowans had something on their minds, but it wasn’t jobs, taxes or business regulations.

About 4 in 10 caucus-goers said immigration was their top issue, compared to 1 in 3 picking the economy, according to VoteCast. Other priorities like foreign policy, energy and abortion ranked even lower.

Indeed, about two-thirds of caucusgoers said they felt their finances were holding steady or improving. But the voters still want major changes – 3 in 10 want a total upheaval of how the federal government runs while another 6 in 10 want substantial changes. Additionally, Trump faces multiple criminal charges, 6 in 10 caucusgoers don’t have confidence in the U.S. legal system.

It adds up to a portrait of a slice of the electorate eager to challenge core democratic institutions in the U.S.

DESANTIS DISMAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT

Flush with more than $100 million in cash and fresh off a blowout reelection victory, DeSantis entered the 2024 Republican presidential contest projecting himself as the heir to a MAGA political brand that a diminished Trump could no longer effectively carry.

Reality soon intruded.

Eight months and tens of millions of dollars later, DeSantis appears to pose little threat to the former president.

Despite more than $55 million in pro-DeSantis advertising spending, the Florida governor was instead locked in a tight race for second place with Haley.

Just how much DeSantis and his affiliated super PACs have spent is not yet clear. Campaigns have to file their latest fundraising and spending disclosures at the end of the month.

He has been dogged by negative stories about profligate spending, including DeSantis’ preference for flying private planes.

As the trope goes, candidates don’t drop out of political races because they lose – they drop out because they run out of money.

RAMASWAMY PUNCHED HIMSELF OUT

Abrasive, often grating and very online – Vivek Ramaswamy’s quixotic bid for the White House has come across as a millennial distillation of Trump’s Make America Great Again political movement.

Ramaswamy rapped along to verses of Eminem, delighted in trolling his rivals and often sought to out-Trump Trump with his brash rhetoric. That performative aspect helped the wealthy 38-year-old entrepreneur gain considerable attention in the early days of the Republican White House contest.

But it also proved to wear thin, perhaps summed up best when former New Jersey governor Chris Christie called him the “most obnoxious blowhard in America” during a debate.

As returns from Iowa’s caucus posted, Ramaswamy trailed not only Trump, but also Haley and DeSantis.

ABC News contributed to this report.