Do you think the Iowa caucus caused chaos for Democrats in 2020? Try to remove Aiwa from the photo, and the mess will only get worse.
Forces within the National Party are lobbying to sever Iowa, saying that its party system is so undemocratic and complex that it completely collapsed last time, not to mention that Iowa is overwhelmingly white and now a strongly Republican.
However, what must happen exactly next is to launch a series of political, legal and practical challenges, as interviews with more than a dozen Democratic National Committee officials and party leaders in the country show.
said Jeff Kaufman, president of the Iowa Republican Party and chair of the Republican National Committee that oversees the party’s leadership program.
When the Republican Party has tried to oust Iowa in the past, Kaufman said, the efforts failed for lack of a better plan. He predicted something similar would happen to the Democrats.
“You just don’t tap your fingers and a bunch of bloated people at the committee meeting, many of whom didn’t even hold elections themselves, actually came up with something better,” he added.
Two years ago, Iowa Democrats tried to address criticism of their caucuses by making it accessible to people who couldn’t physically participate in a process that would traditionally take hours. But the added complexity ended up confusing the volunteers, and the custom program created to tabulate the results crashed, delaying the result for several days and leaving many doubts about its correctness.
Immediately after that, the elbow began to fly behind the scenes of state officials vying for a better spot or even just their current spot in the Democrats’ early primary window — which are the four early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
Others argue that Democrats should explore adding a fifth country to the mix. New countries are trying to intervene.
Nevada pushes hard to jump to the front of the pack. New Hampshire in the past has threatened to move the primary as soon as possible to keep its number one spot in the state from being raped. South Carolina says it took first place. And Iowa is not about to give up easily.
“I think people don’t understand the complexity of the process. They think the DNC can unilaterally change prime dates and states — that’s not the way it works,” said Frank Lyon, a longtime NDC member, noting that councils State legislatures ultimately set election dates. “We can persuade and we can punish states that go out the window, but there are limits to our control over the process.”
It is unclear what the party’s leader, President Joe Biden, who lost three of the four early states, wants before his scheduled re-election campaign.
“At some point, we have to hear what the White House wants,” said Trav Robertson, the South Carolina Democratic Party chairman.
Inertia and a lack of consensus, not to mention a patchwork of self-reinforcing state laws, helped Iowa and New Hampshire maintain the status quo despite years of mounting criticism.
But the reformists think they may finally have a chance.
They want to see more diversity, more conflict states, fewer caucuses — all in states small enough to keep campaign costs low, so the final candidate won’t be out of the primaries.
“It is not about whether or not one country has checked all the boxes. It is about whether all four fit in,” said Mo Elethi, a member of the Democratic National Committee, who is a member of the committee that will oversee any changes. New Hampshire can. I think South Carolina can do that. I think Nevada can do that. I think it’s a tougher issue for Iowa.”
Nevada has the right racial diversity, with a large Hispanic population, and has transitioned from a caucus to a primary – but has seen intra-party conflict, with Democratic Socialists control of the state party last year and a Democratic Shadow Party Create a store.
South Carolina — which saved Biden’s presidential campaign — has a large black population, but the state is so red that critics say the excessive amount of time and money presidential candidates spend there is wasted in the general election.
New Hampshire has its own diversity problems. And perhaps to underscore the sometimes inverted nature of the Democratic entanglement, one of the key officials defending New Hampshire’s place moved there after serving as the Democratic Party chief in another state: Iowa.
“Nevada is uniquely positioned to be number one in the country,” said Judith Whitmer, Nevada Democratic Party chairwoman, arguing that the state has the most geographic, ethnic and economic diversity. “We value tradition. …But sometimes traditions have to give way to new ideas or processes to make sure that we are true representatives of the country as a whole.”
Whitmer said Nevada Democrats have resolved their internal differences and are now doing well. She said the entire party, including the Nevada Democratic Legislature, is committed to “doing what is necessary to make sure that Nevada is number one in the country.”
The political maneuvering and the race to untangle the legal ramifications unfold as the clock approaches dangerously high from the all-time-consuming midterm season.
At this summer’s DNC meeting later this year, the party is expected to launch a process that would allow any country to make its case for being allowed to be one of the first.
But the intensity of the effort shows how seriously Democrats believe the role early nations play in selecting presidential candidates.
It also talks about the financial endowment for the countries hosting one of the first four nomination contests, which brings a steady stream of advertising revenue, sustained media interest, and an early jump in building political infrastructure ahead of the general election.
“I don’t think they have any idea how difficult this is just yet,” said a party leader in a state outside Iowa, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the process. “The truth is, if they start from the premise of no Iowa, then what?”
Without Iowa in the mix, many feel the Midwest will still need representation.
There is no clear state that they are both equally affordable and have democratic control of the legislature to determine its prime date to be brought into the early state fold. However, several DNC officials mentioned Michigan and Minnesota as possibilities.
Iowa DNC member Scott Brennan, who is still a member of the committee that will manage the calendar, has argued that as a rural Midwest state, Iowa is a crucial proof ground for a party that has struggled to reach beyond the coasts and major cities. “We can’t get to a governing majority if we can’t talk to the rural people,” Brennan said.
Iowa advocates have long argued that the state’s small size allows candidates to build support through campaigning in cafes and living rooms, rather than relying solely on expensive television advertising campaigns.
And voters in Iowa are accustomed to conducting thorough vetting of candidates, and investing time in meeting and questioning presidential candidates. Iowa voters are largely credited with helping push Barack Obama to the nomination in 2008.
Some Iowa Democrats threatened to go ahead no matter what, even if the NDC stripped them of delegates to the national convention, as it did with Florida and Michigan in 2008. They noted that Iowa’s importance does not come from its relatively small number of delegates, But it is the interest and momentum gained by going first.
“It’s not Florida, it’s not Michigan. They don’t have a lot of delegates, so if they lose half, that matters,” said Josh Putnam, an expert on presidential primary rules who runs political consulting firm FHQ Strategists.
Other Iowa Democrats say the fight to save the caucuses is a losing battle. Instead, they say Iowa should be biased towards holding an early primaries that do not conflict with New Hampshire law requiring it seven days before any other primaries.
“Go to the primaries, but say we have to be in the first window. That should be what the battle is now over — a party-run primaries when the DNC tells us we can hold the primaries,” said Pete D’Alessandro, an Iowa strategist who He served as a senior advisor on Bernie Sanders’ campaign, “and I don’t hear that from any of the Iowa leadership right now.” “I think you can make an argument that it’s the only thing that should save him.”
However, doing so would require the Republican legislature and the governor in Des Moines to play ball.
“Good luck with that!” Kaufman, the Iowa Republican Party chair, said.
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