For decades, Steven Spielberg has been synonymous with filmmaking. The director has created some of the most enduring moments on the big screen, delighting audiences with spinning fantasies that include lovable aliens, menacing dinosaurs and a very hungry shark. He has even done the unimaginable and made films on brutal themes such as the Holocaust and the D-Day landing that were both commercially successful, as well as critically acclaimed.
But with The Fabelmans, its semi-autobiographical view of growing up as a cinema-obsessed teen in Arizona and Northern California, Spielberg is faced with a cinematic project unrecognizable from the work he grew up in as a director. It’s an industry that simultaneously offers more platforms than ever for “content”, as well as an art form that, at least in terms of big screen embodiment, is rapidly dwindling in cultural significance. Streaming services, not movie theaters, are the dominant force these days. So where does that leave “The Fabelmans”?
The $40 million period piece opened in a limited edition last weekend, earning $160,000 from just four theaters. Audiences loved it, and delivered “A” CinemaScore, which Universal, the studio behind the film, believes will help fuel word of mouth. And the warm reception is not a big surprise. The Fabelmans debuted to a standing ovation at the Toronto Film Festival in September, receiving the Audience Award, often seen as a precursor to future awards season success. It has previously been won by the likes of “Green Book” and “La La Land”. The Fabelmans has also garnered great reviews, some from Spielberg’s best career, and there’s been speculation that he might give him his third Academy Award for directing (he’s already won Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan).
But the truth is that not even Spielberg is immune to the merciless allure of waning theatrical scenes. His latest movie, 2021 West Side Story, hit theaters during the coronavirus outbreak, bringing the estimated $100 million production to a whopping $76 million global total. If the omicron had not been on the scene, it is unlikely that the West Side Story movie, which was aimed at adults, would have achieved much in business. Other pandemic-era films designed to appeal to this type of moviegoer – from “Belfast” to “Licorice Pizza” to the latest blockbusters like “Till” and “Armageddon Time” – have also failed to generate massive ticket sales despite reviews. spirited.
“The Fabelmans is one of those Hollywood movies about making movies, and we know how that usually ends up at the box office,” says Jeff Bock, model relations analyst. “That’s not cool.”
But, Bock thinks there is reason to believe the film can defy the odds: “If anyone can pull it off, it would probably be Spielberg.”
“The Fabelmans” performed on an per screen basis along with “Tár” ($40,000 per theater) and “Everything Everywhere All At One” ($50,000 per theater). But sterling-per-screen results don’t always predict box office fortunes. For example, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “The Master” holds the record for a per-screen score of $147,000 per theater and only went on to have a domestic gross of $16.4 million.
“The Fabelmans performed like so many other prestigious titles,” notes Shawn Robbins, Senior Analyst at BoxOffice Pro. But these types of films are still recovering. The jury is still out on whether older audiences will show up or if they are still worried about crowds and are used to watching these types of movies while broadcasting.”
Universal is taking a more deliberate approach with “The Fabelmans” than Disney did with “West Side Story,” which opened wide with its face implanted. “The Fabelmans” will expand to a few additional theaters next weekend, after which it will be in about 600 screens and most major markets by November 23, just in time for Thanksgiving.
By mid-December, the studio will show the film on PVOD, which should mitigate risks and provide another revenue stream. They also think The Fabelmans, with its affectionate examination of Spielberg’s troubled relationship with his parents, is broadly more appealing than other award fare, such as “Tár” with its unbridled look at sexual harassment, or “The Banshees of Inisherin,” a black comedy featuring accents. Irish is so dense that you may need a translation. A comparison that Universal thinks might be more apt is “Ticket to Heaven,” a romantic comedy led by George Clooney and Julia Roberts that has been marketed to older ticket buyers and is slowly but surely looking to end its domestic run with a gross of $75 million.
Even Spielberg seems to realize, however, that the genres of original films he made are very popular — stories that don’t necessarily originate from comic books or graphic novels — under threat. But always an optimist, he sees reasons for optimism, citing the success of “Elvis” last summer. The film about the life and times of King of Rock and Roll was an unexpected success, grossing $151 million in the United States and $286 million worldwide.
“A lot of older people went to see this movie, and it gave me hope that people started coming back to the movies with the outbreak,” Spielberg said. Recently, for the New York Times. “I think the movies will come back. I really do.”
Perhaps “The Fabelmans” could be part of this revival.
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