Let’s get one thing out of the way: “Avatar: The Way of Water,” the sequel to the highest-grossing movie in history, is expected to be another box office hit from director James Cameron and Disney, who now own the rights to Pandora and its inhabitants. The follow-up, which opens in theaters December 16, is looking to collect between $150 million to $175 million in its first weekend of release.
For beleaguered movie theaters, the decades-old blockbuster couldn’t come sooner. “It’s a very important movie,” says Brooke Bagby, executive vice president of B&B Theaters, a family-owned circuit based in Missouri. “We hope it works.”
But the Na’vi, despite their strength and resilience, cannot support the cinema business on their own. Will any films other than “Avatar 2” succeed at the box office during the crucial holiday season?
After a terrible Thanksgiving – one of the worst in recent history – movie theater operators may be rightly cautious about foot traffic for the rest of the year. With films aimed at adults struggling, they are pinning their vacation hopes on blockbusters with broad appeal, including Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, a sequel in the Shrek universe.
“I was just asking myself, ‘What am I going to do for Christmas besides ‘Puss in Boots’ and ‘Avatar’?” asks Mark O’Meara, who runs Cinema Arts Theaters and University Mall theaters in Virginia. “I’ll live and die by ‘Puss in Boots’… There are two saving graces, but it’s not enough.”
Jeff Logan, owner of South Dakota-based Logan Luxury Theatres, is similarly concerned about the pipeline. “Usually at Christmas we have a limited number of screens, and we have to pick and choose which movie to choose,” he says. “This year, we didn’t have that problem.”
And this is a problem because the multiplex needs momentum to keep people coming back. “One or two pictures can’t keep the stage open,” Logan adds. “We need product flow.”
Ongoing COVID concerns are not causing a slowdown in attendance. After all, it was an unexpectedly strong summer that propelled “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” and “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” to blockbuster status. But the next few months were desolate, prompting fears that sounded uncomfortably like peak times of the pandemic when theaters were completely closed and unable to bring in acts.
“Summer was a shot in the arm, but September was disastrous,” says Logan. “A lot of profits have been eaten away.”
In terms of newer winter offerings, Universal Santa Claus thriller “Violent Night,” starring David Harbor as St. Nick’s killer, could benefit from word of mouth after slightly exceeding expectations with $13 million. Meanwhile, A24 is hoping the Brendan Fraser renaissance is alive and well as “The Whale” debuts in limited release this weekend, along with “Empire of Light,” a Searchlight drama from director Sam Mendes and star Olivia Colman.
Will these movies buck the trend of underperforming award season hopefuls, or will older moviegoers still be selective about what’s worth the price of admission these days?
The “Puss in Boots” sequel will kick off the Christmas season in earnest on December 21, leaving director Damien Chazelle’s entertainment epic “Babylon” and Sonny Huston’s “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” to wrap up the year.
“Babylon sounds pretty good,” says Logan, who expects similar earnings to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. But he recognizes that a lot has changed in films since Quentin Tarantino’s ode to entertainment opened in 2019. “I don’t know if the average Joe cares about decadence in Hollywood, and the ’20s are a tough decade to sell to today’s audiences. It’s been since.” A long time “.
The calendar is more empty than many had hoped because the rest of Hollywood wanted to steer clear of “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which will likely reign until 2023. Even with 38% fewer new releases compared to pre-pandemic times, however, Cinema owners feel they have no choice but to remain hopeful.
“Do we wish there were more products? Absolutely,” Bagby says. But 2023 is even more loaded. By 2024, we think it will be back to normal.”
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