The global film exhibition market is likely to grow 12% next year to $29 billion, according to new projections. But this comes after 2022 as the recovery has been slowed by multiple shocks. And it leaves the industry down by more than a quarter compared to the pre-pandemic era.
An early forecast from consulting firm Gower Street Analytics indicates that the global cinema business will finish 2022 with total revenues of $25.8 billion at the box office, compared to $21.3 billion in 2021.
The 2023 forecast is still 27% behind the average of the three years prior to the pandemic (2017-2019) at current exchange rates (or down 30% using historical rates). If the forecasts are good, they suggest the industry will need to wait until at least 2024 to see a full return to pre-pandemic global box office levels.
This year has been a difficult year, afflicted by external and psychological problems. These include: a depressed Chinese box office, which is likely to end up around $3 billion behind in 2021; the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting boycott of Russia by American studios; The roller coaster of exchange rates has devalued non-US revenues by $1 billion, according to Gower Street.
The film’s release calendar was also a factor. Well-documented glitches meant uneven showing of films in theaters. Rescheduling some major titles from 2022 to 2023 could cut North American “domestic” box office revenues by up to $1 billion.
According to the consultancy, the North American market is expected to increase by 12% in 2023 to $8.6 billion, compared to an expected 2022 figure of $7.65 billion. This is 25% behind the average of the last three years prior to the pandemic.
Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and Latin America are expected to gain 11-12% during 2022 and decline by about 20% from the pre-pandemic average.
EMEA is expected to increase by approximately 7% by 2022 and finish 30% behind the pre-pandemic average. The biggest obstacle in that region is Russia.
China remains the hardest region to predict. Its release calendar is the least clear. There is continuing uncertainty about access to import bonds. And the COVID policy change could also have a double-edged effect. Gower Street projects $5.55 billion for China in 2023. This is growth over the projected year-end total of $4.4 billion for 2022, but significantly lower than the 2021 total of $7.3 billion and still well below the 2017-2019 period , which averaged $8.77 billion. .
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