“Avatar: The Way of Water” had a smaller boom on its debut at the box office in mainland China than was expected just a few weeks ago. But given the rapidly changing circumstances in the country, that may have been as good as we could have hoped.
The film earned $51.3 million between Friday and Sunday, according to data from consulting firm Artisan Gateway. That represents a whopping 97% market share of Artisan Gateway’s reported $53.5 million weekend total. Including advance previews on Wednesday and midnight showings on Thursday, “Avatar 2” closed the weekend with a cumulative total of $57 million.
These numbers represent: just #12 in the 2022 nationwide weekend box office total; the fourth-biggest opening show for any film in China this year; But, still, the biggest opening by any Hollywood movie released in China in 2022.
Giant screen supplier Imax reported that the film earned $15.8 million (including pre-release screenings) from the 735 screens operating under its brand in the country. She said this was the best Imax weekend ever in China.
But the growing COVID problem in China is causing quick revisions of all forecasts.
For more than two and a half years, China has implemented a strict zero-COVID policy, under which it will try to identify, track and isolate every infection in the country. This policy has led municipal and regional governments to lock down entire cities on short notice, conduct onerous mass testing processes and impose travel and access restrictions.
In the past two weeks, that policy has been significantly dismantled. But along with the relaxed restrictions, the new policy is also allowing COVID to spread quickly through the population. Data on the magnitude of the new spike in infections is difficult to collect and interpret because Chinese authorities no longer report the number of asymptomatic cases.
However, many people chose to stay home for fear of contracting the disease. Others have contracted it and are isolating themselves at home. Some companies in Beijing have reported that half their workforce no longer ventures out.
Cinema chains have been affected by audience hesitation in the face of the growing outbreak and a shortage of staff to operate the theatres.
Data from local Chinese sources shows that the number of performances nationwide decreased by 20,000 from Saturday to Sunday.
Ticketing agency Maoyan has slashed its expectations for the potential final outcome of “Avatar 2” by more than half. On Friday, within hours of the film’s opening, Maoyan predicted the film would gross 2.5 billion yuan (about $357 million at current exchange rates). By Monday, Maoyan revised its forecast to 1 billion yuan, or $143 million.
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