If you’ve been on the fence about whether foldable phones are futuristic innovations or a gimmick that’s about to die, 2023 might be the year to change your mind.
It’s easy to see how quiet the folding space is right now, especially if you live in the States. We had the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 4 and Galaxy Z Flip 4 in August, and Motorola will probably bring out the Razr 2022 at some point, but that’s about it. But the thing about next year is that there are more rumors or confirmation that more companies are bringing out foldable devices, and these devices could really bring something different.
To try and make some predictions for next year in the form of foldable files, I spoke to experts Ben Wood, senior analyst and director of marketing at analyst firm CCS Insight, and Runar Bjørhovde, research analyst at Canalys. Besides what the rumors tell us about next year’s batch of foldable devices, the picture of foldable phones in 2023 is a great one.
Starting with a bang
“Everything points to an avalanche of foldable devices in 2023, and we expect MWC [February 27 – March 2] To be a hub for foldable devices with many Chinese manufacturers showcasing devices they have already announced while others will unveil new products.”
Since the Google Pixel Fold is also likely to be unveiled in May, the first half of the year could be an exciting time for foldable phone fans.
The only problem, as with previous years, is that these Chinese foldable devices mostly won’t make it to the US. Flip, and it’s likely that more companies like Xiaomi will start shipping foldable devices outside of China as well. But the range of available devices will still be small, and this will give an advantage to one company in particular.
Samsung keeps the crown
It probably won’t surprise anyone keeping tabs on the foldable device market that Samsung sold 79% of all foldable devices sold in the first nine months of 2022 (according to Canalys data). While that’s less than the 90% saturation it managed to achieve in 2021, Samsung’s Galaxy Z models will likely still maintain that lead into 2023 and beyond.
“Samsung will continue to lead its portfolio with foldable devices in the coming years,” says Runar Bjørhovde.
“The main driver behind this is the ability for devices to make adapters from Apple and other Android brands,” he continues, but this appears to depend in part on users having no other options right now if they live outside of China.
One of the unique things the Galaxy Z Fold 4 does, but other foldables you haven’t tried yet, is stylus support. It allows users to make more use of the large foldable display, in line with premium tablets, although the caveat is that the S Pen must be stored separately.
Fortunately, Bjørhovde says he “wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung’s next development feature is the inclusion of the S Pen in the Fold model,” though there’s no guarantee the Galaxy Z Fold 5 will arrive. And that feature may well remain another generation or two away given the challenges. engineering that may be involved.
There are still major hurdles
Even if Samsung still dominates the world of foldable devices, and even if it manages to pack an S Pen into the next Z Fold, that won’t drive sales in and of itself. According to Canalys, only 1% of all phones sold this year (excluding Q4) were foldable, and the things that keep users from ditching their slate-shaped phones for flexible phones are unfortunately not going away next year.
As Wood says: “There are still significant challenges to overcome with foldable devices. Durability remains among consumers’ biggest concerns about purchasing a foldable device.”
While companies obviously limit the number of thousands of times the hinges of their phones can be folded without breaking, and Samsung has given some peace of mind by certifying the Galaxy Z Fold 4 and Galaxy Z Flip 4 as IPX8 water-resistant, some foldable parts remain uniquely weak. The main offering will be the foldable screen, which should be soft and flexible by design.
If these issues are fixed, or at least taken into account, the cost of these phones will also be a “big hurdle” according to Wood.
“2023 will definitely see a price drop, but I expect foldable smartphones to remain premium devices for some time,” he says.
It’s very unfortunate because I’ve been reaching for the heavens for Samsung to make a cheaper foldable, but it’s all related. Until more people have confidence about buying a foldable device, the price of parts and repairs won’t come down, which in turn keeps them out of the hands of potential users.
Other than fixing these issues, there’s one thing Bjørhovde says companies can also do to attract new buyers:
“I think that [experience] is where vendors of foldable devices should focus their attention to make sure they remain relevant to consumers.”
Obviously, foldables are unique looking devices, but that doesn’t help sell the device unless you can do something interesting and useful with it. You have to justify all that money you spent somehow, after all. Things like Samsung’s S Pen or Flex Mode are good for this, but more is needed before people feel that folds are necessary in the same way that a regular smartphone is. And a new player entering the market this year could make a difference there.
pixel effect
We’ve hinted before at the Google Pixel Fold, a foldable that’s rumored to be a first from Google. This is likely important because it is guaranteed to sell in the US, where Samsung’s position as king of foldable devices is most secure, providing some much-needed competition to the Z Fold 4. But Bjørhovde sees another significance of Google’s involvement in the foldable market. .
“I find the rumors about the Google Pixel very interesting,” says Bjørhovde, “not because it’s ‘just’ another vendor – but because it could help get an extra push of development on the software side and user experience with Android. In addition, the Google Pixel is on Very willing to invest in making the mass market more user-friendly of foldable devices – and can match Samsung on this.”
Right now, Android phone makers wanting to make a foldable device have to do much of the software work required to adapt Android to the new form factor themselves. But if Google helps add more foldable-friendly features to stock Android, as it did with Android 13 and Android 12L before it, this could be the impetus for more companies to try to build foldables, and hopefully push the sector forward towards more innovation and phones. Efficient folding in a way that Pixel Fold can’t manage.
We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of the Pixel Fold. Current rumors paint it as an effective competitor to the Galaxy Z Fold 4, not least because of the intimidating-looking camera array on the back. While the Galaxy Z Fold 4’s cameras are much better than previous generations, the Chinese folds outpace it on hardware, and there’s no doubt that Google will be able to do a much better job with foldable photography through its amazing post-processing software.
Not an iPhone Flip… probably
Before we wrap up, one last question: will 2023 be the year the elusive iPhone Flip appears? Bjørhovde is skeptical.
“I highly doubt we’ll see anything to do with foldable devices from Apple over the coming years. Apple has a relaxed attitude with the iPhone… and foldables provide unnecessary risk of their own in the short term.”
This would make perfect sense from Apple, a company known for avoiding risks with its phones. While some analysts have suggested that Apple will bring out its first foldable version next year, there’s certainly no rush for Apple to do so just yet, even if it loses some of its users to Samsung due to the Galaxy Z models. Its time and ensures that the foldable iPhone is ultra-polished when it launches so it can start converting its customers into foldable users with low risk to its reputation or bottom line.
Foldable Files in 2023: Outlook
I already thought 2022 was a good year for foldables, given the amount of time the Galaxy Z Fold 4 stayed in my pocket instead of a standard Android phone. But other than some minor phone sorts updates we’ve already seen before, it’s been kind of quiet.
But that doesn’t seem to be the case in 2023. Between the rumors and expert analysis we saw above, the next 12 months could be the biggest year for foldable devices since we first started seeing them in 2019. Some basic issues with foldable phones may take Folding has taken a little longer to solve, as has pricing and durability, but with plenty of new players in the game, including influential Google, foldable devices could be a huge source of excitement in the new year. Who knows, maybe next year will be the time you’ll finally consider switching phones, and if you do, Tom’s guide will be here to provide tips on buying the best foldable phones so you can find the one that’s right for you.
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