The USC quarterback is stepping into the spotlight with a series of games that could cement his Heisman Trophy nomination, starting Saturday against rival UCLA.
USC finds itself in an unsavory position in the College Football Playoff rankings, sandwiched between LSU and Alabama in seventh place—two teams that have already suffered two losses, and a veritable death-bout in these proceedings—in seventh place. According to ESPN’s FPI, North Carolina at just 0.1 percent has a lower chance of making the playoffs than the Trojans at 7.2.
The quarterback is in the same place when it comes to the Heisman Trophy. Caleb Williams is sixth as the last odds (+1100), finding himself behind another Pac-12 passer in Bo Nix of Oregon State (+800), whose case has been riddled with historic pitfalls.
But for both the prize and match-winning dreams, the lights and opportunity are suddenly brighter than they have been in weeks.
The Trojans head to No. 16 UCLA on Saturday, followed by No. 18 Notre Dame. If USC beats the Bruins in the Battle of Los Angeles, it will press for a ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game, where it will likely see No. 10 Utah or No. 12 Oregon.
This puts Williams in position to have three consecutive top 25 games to finish the regular season, the only stretch for either contender. Should the Trojans beat them all, that makes a compelling case for the one-time losing conference champions to reach the playoffs for the first time.
But will it be enough?
Alabama’s Bryce Young (+250), winning defenseman, and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud (+400) were the only players to open the season with better odds than Williams (+800). He jumped to +300, second only to Stroud, after week 4, but since the Oct. 14 loss to Utah he’s been up to +1400, and after heading in the right direction last week at +800 again, +1100 entering week 12 (on Colorado’s total of five touchdowns though).
Ranked third in the FBS with 31 touchdown passes and eighth in Efficiency Rating (166.41) With 3,010 total yards, Williams has the numbers, but he lacks the moments. Honestly, aside from Hendon Hooker’s heroics where Tennessee took down Alabama, it was a race-light on Heisman moments.
Williams was there, trolling a resume that didn’t include a single win over a ranked team. Now he has a chance to prove his case with an eye-catching closure.
Before we dive into this week’s stock watch, here’s what this voter’s hypothetical poll looks like after 11 weeks.
1. CJ Stroud, Ohio State
2. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
3. Blake Corum, Michigan
Heisman Stock Watch: Which Candidates Are Warming Up, Which Are Holding Back?
Buy: CJ Stroud, Ohio State / Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
The top two contenders have bounced back big after their Week 11 setbacks and are in line for some stat-building performances this weekend…but let’s talk about those stats for a moment.
Stroud has thrown for 2,750 yards and 34 touchdowns, and with up to three games to play before the vote is due if Ohio State plays for the Big Ten title, he is on pace for 3,575 yards and 44 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Hooker threw for 2,888 yards and 24 scores and ran for 405 yards and five touchdowns with only two games remaining, with Tennessee resigned to watching Georgia represent the East in the SEC Championship Game. He is tallying for 3,546 total yards and 30 touchdowns, including 3,465 passing yards and 29 passing scores.
If the Cup ends up going, it will be the fewest passing yards by a winner since Lamar Jackson (who also ran for 1,538 yards) in 2016 and the fewest total yards since Troy Smith (2,740 yards) in 2006. Stroud would have the lowest touchdown count since Johnny’s 43 Manziel in 2012; Hooker’s lowest score since Eric Crouch’s 19 in 2001.
That doesn’t mean they aren’t both Heisman-worthy. Both have popped since the opening shot and look set to finish with a 1-2 vote. In terms of their stats, they’re unlikely to make up for those speed gaps against previous winners this week, but both Hooker and Stroud should be in for the big days on the road.
Stroud and the No. 2 Buckeyes in Maryland, which has struggled against winning teams, allowing 278.3 passing yards per game (77 more than losing teams) and a defense that burned it to 406 yards a year earlier. Hooker and company head to South Carolina, which ranks 28th in pass reception, allowing 194 yards per game, but has played one Power 5 offense higher than 56 in the air — Georgia is in the ninth — and lost 339 yards.
Sale: Bo Nix, Oregon
There’s no way around that: All of the momentum Bo Nix gained was squashed in the loss to Washington at Autzen Stadium.
They were riding an eight-game winning streak and the Knicks were apparently in line for a trip to the gala, despite the shellacking against Georgia in the season opener. But now the Ducks are all out of playoff races with two Ls on their resumes, and while there’s still a chance for the Pac-12 crown, that won’t keep his Heisman hopes steady.
In the playoffs era, only one winner has come from outside the bottom four teams, and in the past four years, only 26 percent of the finalists (four out of 15) have come from outside teams. With each of the top five teams having a rival, it doesn’t bode well for the Knicks.
Buy: Drake May, North Carolina
Desert people straight into the Drake Maye hype train.
Off the plate to open the season, the redshirt freshman jumped to +500 — which puts him behind only Stroud and Hooker — after besting Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman to propel the now 10th-ranked Tar Heels to 9-1 and the ACC Coastal Division title.
Maye’s 34 touchdowns tied Stroud for the FBS lead and is third in yards (3,412), second in yards per game (341.2) and third in efficiency rating (178.9). He also has a chance to boost his resume late with back-to-back Top 25 appearances against No. 24 NC State and No. 9 Clemson.
At this point, there seems a very real possibility that Maye will produce the Tar Heels’ first Top 10 since Julius Peppers’ No. 10 finish in 2001, their best result since runner-up Charlie Justice in 1949.
Selling: Max Dugan, UCLA
The wins continue for TCU, which is 10-0 and remains fourth in the latest playoff standings, but Max Duggan’s numbers are slipping.
He threw for a season-low 124 yards and one touchdown in last Saturday’s win over Texas and has had fewer than 200 receiving yards in each of the past two games. In mid-November, he was 82nd in the month in passing yards (319).
Despite a lack of great stats lately, Duggan still ranks sixth in efficiency rating (172.56) and has a game that’s a relief, as the Horned Frogs take on Baylor, which has given up 405 yards or more in consecutive games.
But time is running out with 2,531 yards to this point. Duggan remains in the mix, but Bryce Young is the only player in the top eight in odds thrown for fewer yards (2,443), and Young is essentially a non-factor at this point.
Buy: Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia
There’s history in the making for Stetson Bennett IV, who threw for 2,895 yards on the season, putting him just behind Aaron Murray’s 999 yards in a season at Georgia.
Getting there seems almost a foregone conclusion with the Bulldogs potentially playing up to five more games if they return to the national title game, but Heisman votes are due on the Monday after the SEC championship. So, in terms of his candidacy, will Bennett tick the ballot deadline?
It’s numbers to get interesting. He averages 289 yards per game, which puts Bennett within shouting distance, but Georgia faces Kentucky this week, and is 17-for-the-pass (182 yards-per-game)—and has allowed 200 yards in the air three times all season— Followed by Georgia Tech (57th at 220.4 per game) and No. 6 LSU (41st at 207.8 per game) in Atlanta.
This mark won’t make or break Murray’s standing in the race, and frankly, he’s far behind the leaders, but Georgia’s dominance is in his favour. He will appear on the ballots and must challenge Eric Zehr (1994) and Ray Goff (1976), who were in seventh place, for the all-time best finish by a Bulldogs quarterback.
Sale: Chase Brown, Illinois
Helped off the field in the final minute of last weekend’s loss to Purdue, it’s unclear if Chase Brown will fit in Saturday when Illinois faces No. 3 Michigan.
But it’s not just his status that earns him “sale” status from Brown.
His streak of 10 consecutive 100-yard games has been snapped by the Boilermakers, and if he hits the field in Ann Arbor, he’ll be up against the best rushing defense in the country, which gives up just 72.7 yards per play.
This isn’t exactly a positive combination for a player who desperately needs to outsmart Corum to revive his already slim chances.
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