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NCAA Championship should not be Factor in potential draft ratings more than each player did during the rest of the season. But we all know that the bright lights of March Madness have a way of amplifying or shrinking the stock of the next crop of NBA starters.
A strong NCAA tournament performance could make NBA decision-makers a positive final impression against the real competition and help build momentum going into pre-draft training and the NBA Draft Combine.
What were the most impressive NBA draft predictions so far for March Madness?
5. Mark Williams, center, Duke and Christian Colocco, center, Arizona
There are many sporting greats, edge-stopping, blocking shots available in this category, and both Williams and Koloko fit into this mold. Fake drafts and big boards vary but both players can be first-round picks with Williams pushing towards the lottery (#21 went to the Bulls in our last simulation). For players in this role, you’d like to see them be able to leverage their sporting advantages against the smaller, sometimes slower big players they’d see in early matches in the tournaments, which is exactly what Williams and Koloko did.
In two games (against Cal. State Fullerton and Michigan State), Williams has 30 points, 15 rebounds, 10 blocks, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 13 shots of 16 off the field. His ability to make passing readings off the post and off the short lap is very important to opening his roof and therefore seeing 5 assists, even if they all came against Cal. State, is encouraging. In his two matches, Koloko collected 45 points, 25 rebounds, 8 assists and 8 balls, hitting 19 of 23 from the field.
They may never be All-Stars, but both players seem ready to block shots, finish playing around the edge and make a difference around the glass.
4. Jaden Ivey, goalkeeper, Bordeaux
Jaden Ivey’s initial appeal as a prospect revolves around his strength and his explosiveness as a goalkeeper and he definitely cemented that in his first two matches of the tournament. No one at Yale or Texas has been able to get him off the track and he has put in a total of 40 points and 18 free throw attempts so far.
The questions about Ivey are what he will be able to offer besides his dodge hack and score. A total of seven rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block in two games wouldn’t answer any of those questions, but Ivy made it to 5 of 10 from outside the arc including some impressive draws.
Ivey has only hit 36.4 percent of his three-pointers this season, but if he consistently excels at dribbling, it’s much easier to imagine him as a base builder and next-level goalscorer.
3. CHET HOLMGREEN, BEige, GONZAGA
Holmgren’s stock can’t go up much, he’s sure to be one of the top three picks no matter what happens in the tournament. But those first two matches were the perfect reminder of how versatile and influential he is even when he struggles in one area. Holmgren dominated Gonzaga’s first game, scoring 19 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and blocking just about everything in sight.
Jalen Duren’s physicality and strength gave him some trouble in game two and he missed all his three throws, but he still finished with 9 points, 9 rebounds, 2 possessions and 4 blocks. Even when he deviates from his rhythm offensively, he can still be a pesky beast in defense with his length, speed, and perception.
2. Paolo Banchero
Like Holmgren, Banchero is unlikely to come out in the top four or five picks, even if he struggled in the tournament or Duke came out early. But Banchero hasn’t struggled at all, putting in 36 points, 17 rebounds and 8 assists in three games, shooting 15 of 28 from the field and 4 of 9 from outside the arc so far.
It would be great to see Panchero rambling a bit more in the basket – he’s only tried 10 paintball shots and only four free throws in two games. But he repeatedly went to the basket in the second half when they were struggling with Michigan State, and his ability to consistently hit outside jumpers and do elbows would be a much bigger factor in reaching his stellar potential. He’s definitely looked at the star part so far.
1. Benedict Mathurin, The Wing, Arizona
Mathurin has been the star of the tournament so far, putting up 18 points against Wright State in the first round and then 30 in Arizona’s overtime win over the TCU. Mathurin, an overly athletic winger with a fluffy jacket, was already a likely lottery pick and number 6 went to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the last mock draft. He had already succeeded in bringing to light his explosive jumping ability…
…and his bravery as a jumper.
From an efficiency standpoint, Mathurin’s numbers were not as impressive as his raw scoring totals. He only fires 40.5 percent from the field across the two championship games, and is 7 of 21 from outside the arc. But he does a creative job and has made it to the streak 13 times against TCU. That might not indicate his potential rooftop and next-level role (where it might be a 3D supercharged wing more than a secondary innovator) but it might be enough to move his draft position up a slot or two.
Other NBA Stories:
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Chet Holmgren is one of the most talented and unique characters in the NBA draft we’ve seen in years. What is the best place for it??
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