Our WNBA Mock Draft project takes a look at a talented group of potential clients and a project order that has been significantly revamped by a number of trades.
We are less than a week away from the 2022 WNBA draft. Atlanta Dream holds the first pick for this year’s draft after trading with the Mystics on Wednesday, while Indiana Fever currently has three of the top six picks.
The WNBA draft always looks more random than other professional sports drafts, in part because there isn’t enough publicly available data for fans and analysts to get the kind of reading about how players stack up you get in other leagues.
However, we have an idea of which players are good through a combination of eye testing and college basketball data available from places like Her hop stats And the Central Bank of Bahrain Analytics. So, let’s make fun of the draft. (And please note that this is supposed to be a predictive model draft, not a mock draft of “who to take”. There are some players that I consider to be less than I think the teams will be, but I still put them in the first round because I think they’ll be recruited there.)
WNBA Mock Draft: First Round Picks
Pick 1: Atlanta Dream – Ryan Howard
Wednesday’s trade makes it likely that NaLyssa Smith will end up as the first choice overall on Rhyne Howard, but I’ll stick to dropping Howard here, as Dream has needs on the wing and in the forward area as I lean. Suppose in such situations that the scarcity of postures will lead to a seizure of the flank. Howard is someone who can get creative in 3. There is some complaint about her numbers not improving over the past two seasons, but part of that is due to her lower usage because she has been playing with a better support team. She scored at least 37.3 percent from deep in each of her seasons and ranked 92 percent in assists per game this year despite not being a springboard. Howard is a perfect fit for Washington.
Pick 2: Indiana Fever – Nalissa Smith
Fever literally need everything, so it’s good that they have plenty of choices. Smith ranked ninth nationally in points per game and eleventh in rebounds per game. It’s impossible to stop in transition and she can score in the group as she expands her game into the mid-range and beyond. Her athletic activity really pops up on the bar. I know there’s some concern that she’s not big enough to play a lot of the five, but she could be an elite 4th who can give some 5 minute little ball. She was also encouraged by how she was able to take on a bigger role last season in a more modern offensive system and the results have improved across the board for her.
Pick 3: Washington Mystics – Shakira Austin
For me there are two best in this draft, then number 3 is obvious, and then things get murky. Austin is third. She didn’t hit the edge as much as an insider would like one to do—only 22.6 percent of her attempts were on the edge—but she was able to score in the paint and in the midrange. But where Austin really stands out is in defense. According to CBB Analytics, it ranks 70th in theft rate and 97th in mass rate. She also manages to be active defensively without fouling, as her PF is at the 97th percentile. It probably won’t do much offensively to begin with, but the Mystics can’t miss the obvious #3 player, even if the fitness here isn’t ideal.
Choose 4: Indiana Fever – Kiersten Bell
Well, now in the “There’s really one big class of players for the rest of the first round” section. I can see Fever going in a lot of directions here, with any of the first-round options that will be listed below in play. I’m leaning on Bill here because after taking Smith, it makes sense to go with a wing here. Bell scored 23.5 points per game for Florida Gulf Coast this past season and fired 63.4 percent into the arc. I also tried making 9.4 3s per game, even though they only made 28.8 percent of them. There will be plenty of shooting opportunities in Indiana this season. Can she adapt to jump in the competition level?
Pick 5: New York Liberty – Emily Engstler
Engstler might be the biggest bullish for me over the last month or so. The 6-foot-1 forward can do a little bit of everything on the basketball court and would fit in nicely in Liberty’s 3D piece. I don’t think she has the same roof as some of the players still on the board, but New York needs to kick in to help Sabrina Ionescu/Betnijah Laney pair up.
Pick 6: Indiana Fever – Nia Clawden
Indiana has a great. They have a suite. Now, let’s give them a guard! Clouden will pair a nice offensive back area with Kelsey Mitchell, taking some of the pressure off Mitchell and allowing both to be relatively effective. They’re small, but we’ve seen smaller players have had success over the last two drafts, with players like Crystal Dangerfield and Dana Evans taking on roles. Clauden is more than just two guards, but I think her insult would translate even with a height flaw.
Pick 7: Dallas Wings – Niara Sabali
I could have seen Sabali rise to fourth, but in a league where every point on the roster is precious, I wonder if teams could ditch Sabali’s injury fears, as she’s had multiple ACL tears during her college career. Dallas would be a good place to land, not only because Sabali’s sister Sato is already playing with the wings, but because she could use another top team. Last year the team spent the first two picks on Charli Collier and Awak Kuier, but that doesn’t count as a lock to be a big start for this team into the future. Why not take someone like Sabali who can play in paint but can also put the ball on the floor?
Pick 8: Minnesota Links – Seka Kone
I’ll admit that being the least player I’ve seen in this draft, I don’t get the chance to see much of the La Liga where you play. But one of the highlights I’ve seen is that the sports universe is really coming to light. She needs some time to harness the sport and work on honing her skills at home. It makes me love this place in Minnesota, where she can have one season to learn from Sylvia Fowles. And with so many members of this team accessing free agency in 2023, Kone is also a good bet for the future, someone with an edge over anyone else on the board.
Pick 9: Los Angeles Sparks – Destiny Henderson
The talk has long been that this draft lacked the option of protecting the elite. That may still be true, but Destiny Henderson’s performance in the national title game might have some rethinking of that logic. Henderson was a magician on Sunday, scoring 26 points in the win over Ocon. She hit 39.9 percent of 3 this season and is active on the defensive end. It’s also a little small in size and its recording isn’t very consistent. Could Henderson be a starting point guard in the W? Sparks could let her learn from Christy Tolliver this year and then try to get Henderson and Shenedy Carter to work in the backyard in 2023, which would be a lot of fun.
Pick 10: Indiana Fever – Nas Helmon
There seems to be a huge gap between what some people think of Helmon and what others think of Helmon. Ask someone having an eye test and they are likely to choose the lottery. Ask someone analytical and she’s not a first-rounder. The problem with Helmon is that she took 76.6 percent of her shots over the edge — nothing on her profile pictured in college to suggest she could work outside the restricted area. There’s just something Megan Gustafson about Helmon – an incredibly productive college player who just doesn’t have the ability to keep doing these things at W Gustafson, since people were expecting she would go on draft night. Could the same thing happen to Helmon?
Pick 11: Las Vegas Aces – Elisa Conan
I had high hopes for Konan this season. After flashing so much potential last year, I thought she’d come back and dominate NC State. But that didn’t really happen. The upside is clear for Konan because she’s big enough to play indoors and out, but will she be able to keep her defense in the five? And does the lack of marksmanship development as a senior student mean she would struggle to develop range in the W? It’s also worth noting that I think the NC state system that she played in was pretty perfect for her. Is there an ideal landing spot in the West that will give her the space she needs indoors?
Pick 12: Connecticut Sun – Veronica Burton
The final selection for the first round belongs to Connecticut. With Courtney Williams and Natisha Hedman arriving at free agency after this season, I think Kurt Miller’s squad will be guarding here. Burton and Kristen Williams are the two top potential players after Henderson, but I fall back to Burton because I think she’ll be better defensively and a better passer, which is good for the team as she will be asked to take the backseat to the bigs and focus on preparing players like Jonquel Jones and DeWanna Bonner.
WNBA Mock Draft: Second and Third Round Picks
I won’t give any explanations for these choices, but here’s a rough outline of how the second and third rounds should look. Note: I am much less confident in these choices than I was in the first rounds.
Pick 13: Minnesota Links – Ray Burrell
Pick 14: Washington Mystics – Kristen Williams
Pick 15: Atlanta Dream – Khayla Pointer
Pick 16: Los Angeles Sparks – Laurella Copage
Pick 17: Seattle Storm – Evina Westbrook
Pick 18: Seattle Storm – Mia Hollingshead
Pick 19: Los Angeles Sparks – Aisha Shepard
Pick 20: Indiana Fever – Jade Mebourne
Pick 21: Seattle Storm – Lexi Hull
Pick 22: Minnesota Links – Jasmine Dickey
Pick 23: Las Vegas Aces – Joan Allen Taylor
Pick 24: Connecticut Sun – Olivia Nelson O’Doda
Pick 25: Indiana Fever – Jenna Stetty
Pick 26: Phoenix Mercury – Hannah Sergeven
Pick 27: Los Angeles Sparks – Katie Banzan
Pick 28: Minnesota Links – Chloe Baby
Pick 29: New York Liberty – Jordan Lewis
Pick 30: Dallas Wings – Queen Igbo
Pick 31: Dallas Wings – Keanna Smith
Pick 32: Phoenix Mercury – Lotta-Maj Lahtinen
Pick 33: Seattle Storm – Keogh Morrison
Pick 34: Indiana Fever – Vivian Gray
Pick 35: Las Vegas Aces – Anna Wilson
Pick 36: Connecticut Sun – Bethe Mononga
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