As the NASCAR Cup Series playoff begins, we’re checking favourites, sleepers, coordination, date and more.
After 26 races of action, the NASCAR Cup Series regular season wrapped up Sunday in Daytona, with Austin Dillon winning the final regular season race and earning himself a spot in the NASCAR playoffs. Now, the domain is assigned to 16 drivers. Who is the favourite? How do qualifiers even work? Let’s take stock of where we are with this NASCAR season reset.
NASCAR Cup Series playoff: What’s the format?
NASCAR adopted a playoff format in 2004 for the Cup Series, replacing the full-season standings the organization had used for years with a regular season of 26 races and then a 10-race playoff.
The format of the match has changed over the years. It was originally designed as the second 10 races after the season ended, with the top 10 drivers resetting in points. It was the champion who led the standings after the final race of the qualifiers. It was a simple form.
The current shape It is… less simple.
16 drivers qualify for qualifying now, but they’re not only the top 16 drivers in points. NASCAR has a “win and you’re in” format, in which any driver in the top 30 runs the playoffs with a win, as long as there are no more than 16 winners and those drivers have attempted each race (or have a medical waiver for the missed races). If there are fewer than 16 winners, the remaining playoff spots go to drivers who excel in the points standings without a win.
Once we have the lineup, we reset the points. Drivers can earn “break points” during the regular season that are added to their score after a reset. For example, Chase Elliott enters the playoffs with 2,040 points, which means he earned 40 playoff points thanks to his performance during the season, as well as being rewarded for leading the regular season title. Joey Lugano is second in the qualifying points with 2025 points. Austin Dillon didn’t earn any playoff points prior to his win, so he entered the playoffs in 16th place with 2,005 points.
From there the elimination rounds begin. The Round of 16 begins on Saturday in Darlington and continues for three races. If the driver of the match wins one of these three races, he advances to the next round. After the three races, the four drivers with the lowest points score are disqualified from the title race. The same goes for round 12, then round of 8.
After the quarter-finals, the series heads to Phoenix for the season finale. Four drivers will be left at this point. Things get simpler then: the highest achievement of these four drivers is the 2022 champion.
Oh, and one more thing: unlike team sports, drivers who have been left out are still racing. The final race has four drivers vying for a title, but it also has between 32 and 36 other drivers vying to win the race.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoff: How Did We Get Here?
2022 was the most chaotic regular season since this new format started. We actually had 16 different winners, but one of them, Kurt Busch, is currently suffering from a concussion. He initially got a playoff waiver, but Bosch asked to be Waiver can be removed Because he won’t be back in the opening game next week.
That means 15 drivers earned points through wins, with Ryan Blaney taking the only non-winner spot. Martin Truex Jr., who finished the regular season fourth on points, missed the playoffs this year because he had no victory, as Austin Dillon’s win on Sunday eliminated him.
The following drivers will compete in this year’s qualifiers, ranked in order of their post-season standings: Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Riddick, Kevin Harvick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cendrick, Alex Bowman and Austin Dillon.
There is also the Malek Championship. Normally, there isn’t much difference between the driver’s and owner’s title in the Cup Series, but the 45 car driven by Kurt Bosch usually qualified for the owner’s qualifying due to Bosch’s win in the car. Ryan Blaney’s 12 car qualifiers didn’t make the owner’s because 16 full-time cars won races.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoff: Who are the favorites for the tournament?
The NASCAR split system is designed to be unpredictable, but it’s hard to find anyone in better shape than Chase Elliott when we start off the playoffs.
Not only does he start qualifying with nearly a full race lead on the Round of 16 cut-off streak, but he also enters it with the best numbers in the series. He has four wins, while no other driver has more than two. Elliott has won Dover, Nashville, Atlanta, and Pocono, which are all completely different tracks, so it’s not like Elliott has won the same type of race. He also failed to win a road race this year, but was ahead in the final second half at Watkins Glen.
He drove 719 laps, 100 more laps than William Byron, who came second in laps. The average Elliott finish this year is 10.5; The second best average finish among full-time drivers belongs to Truex at 13.2, but as mentioned earlier, Truex is out of qualifying. The best average finish for a non-Elliott driver belongs to Kevin Harvick at 13.3.
And speaking of Harvick, the No. 4 car spent most of the regular season struggling to find the pace. Harvick was out of the cut-off picture when August started, but on day seven he won his first race of the season in Michigan, then followed that up with a win in Richmond one week later. Earlier in the year, Ford didn’t have much speed. In its first 22 races, the Fords have four wins. Toyota has five victories. Chevrolet scored 13 wins. Chevy has the most teams in the sport, while Toyota has only six full-time cars. Meanwhile, Ford has 15 cars, so the disparity there was telling of the difficulties the manufacturer faced.
But now, the speed is there for Ford. Assuming it doesn’t fade, Harvick is in a good position. He has won nine times at Phoenix, the site of the championship race.
Last year’s champion Kyle Larson finished fourth in the standings as we head into the post-season. He hasn’t been as dominant as last season, but Larson has racked up a pair of wins. Last season, Larson was on fire in the playoffs, winning five out of ten races, including the final in Phoenix.
NASCAR Cup Series playoff: Who are the title sleepers?
Ross Chastain is third in points after the reset, so he may not be asleep in the sense we usually think of. But Chastain’s Trackhouse team has taken the leap this year, with Chastain going from a midsize driver last year when he was at Chip Ganassi Racing to a match up front.
But there is one thing that could derail Chastain’s season: himself. Specifically, his aggressive driving. Chastain has made a lot of enemies this season with his driving style, with a few drivers including Denny Hamlin vowing to take revenge on him. It could be tough for Chastain to make it through the playoffs unharmed.
Tyler Riddick is a name worth watching, too. Riddick starts the eighth qualifiers in the standings. He’s been fast all year, but early on, it was hard to get that fast for good results. He has failed to finish three of the top 10 races of the season, and has finished six races this year in 30th or worse.
But Riddick also racked up a pair of wins and is coming into qualifying with momentum after finishing second at Daytona. He finished third in Phoenix earlier this year and won the 2019 Xfinity Series, which uses a similar clincher structure, but with 12 drivers instead of 16.
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