This week, Above the Break is showing off the WNBA Finals, smashing advantages in front zone, backcourt, depth and more.
After months of basketball practice, the WNBA is relegated to the final two teams in pursuit of the 2022 title. On Sunday, the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun will begin a five-game series to determine the winning team for the title.
Neither of these teams have ever won a WNBA title. He last appeared in the Finals in 2020, when they were swept by a storm in three matches, while he last appeared in the 2019 Finals, losing in five matches to the Mystics.
As we prepare for the finals, let’s talk about some of the main things to watch in the series.
Who won the regular season matches between the Sun and the Aces?
May 31
The Aces beat the Sun 89-81, the seventh consecutive win for the Aces, who opened the season 9-1. Aja Wilson scored 24 points and 14 rebounds in the win, while Jackie Young added 21 points and Kelsey Plame scored 18. Aces were only 6 for 25 from outside the arc but still shot enough.
Connecticut led 14 points for DeWanna Bonner, while Jonquel Jones scored only four shot attempts in the game, scoring 3-for-4 with eight points and 13 rebounds.
June 2
The return of these teams came just two days later, as the Sun won 97-90. Jones was even more assertive in winning, going 7 for 9 for 20 points. Five Sun players scored in double figures, and Alyssa Thomas scored a double with 16 points and 12 rebounds.
Aces’ shot is better than depth, with a 10 to 25 shot. But Aja Wilson held 13 points and Aces got just five points off the bench, all from Teresa Plaisance. Jackie Young led the team in scoring with 26 points.
July 17
The Aces won the last meeting of these teams 91-83. It was another game where pots shot poorly from 3, 9 to 36, but three players scored at least 20 points, with Chelsea Gray putting together 21 points and nine assists. The team got 13 points from the bench.
The Sun was without Junkel Jones in that match, but DeWanna Bonner 19 points led the team. Alyssa Thomas was the only starter who didn’t score in double digits, she finished with just five points in a 1 for 6 shot but added 14 rebounds and six assists.
How do these front courts stack up
In order for Sun to win this series, they have to take advantage of their advantages up front.
Aces has the best player in the series at A’ja Wilson, but then you could argue that the next three best players all play for Sun.
Connecticut’s best chance here is to bully aces. Jonquil Jones, Alyssa Thomas and Breonna Jones are all players who can only run a team.
Per Synergy, Sun finished third in most points per possession in post-run attempts at 1.017, behind only Lynx and Sky. They’ve capitalized on their size this year to have one of the best back-to-basket games in the W. Post-ups aren’t the most efficient type of gameplay to run, but on a short streak when you have the advantage of size like the Sun, it’s nice to have in your arsenal.
It’s particularly useful in this series because the Aces rank ninth out of the league’s 12 teams in defense of subsequent competitions, allowing 0.967 points per possession this season against this type of play. (It’s worth noting that Sun was worse at defending in the posteriors, allowing 0.978 points per possession, but that matters less here because the Aces weren’t particularly good at scoring in the suffixes.)
In order for the Sun to disturb the Aces in this series, they will need to take a few shots into the basket.
This was an issue earlier in the Sky series, but Sun really held out for the last two games. Overall, Sun has the second-worst field goal percentage in the restricted area in these playoffs at 56 percent, but they’ve improved that to 59.4 percent in their last two games.
Their percentage in the restricted area would naturally be lower than the other teams, despite only the number of attempts they had made there. The Sun averaged 31.3 attempts per match in the restricted area in these playoffs. The Aces averaged 11.8.
This Sun team’s way to win is to get the ball and get it to the basket. Storm shot 67.3 percent into the restricted area against the Aces in the last round, so there’s definitely something to tap in there for the Sun.
Of course, none of that would matter if two things happened. The first is that Aja Wilson continues to be Aja Wilson. She’s averaged 20.5 points and 10.8 rebounds per game this season after shooting 55.4 percent. She has struggled with her efficiency against this team in the regular season, but if the Aces can play creating individual opportunities in the space for Wilson, much of Sun’s merits disappear.
And speaking of disappearance, the most important thing the Sun needs is that Jonquil Jones doesn’t disappear. There have been some weird usage patterns with it this year – games where you barely take shots or games like we saw in the series vs. Sky where you walk off the field at a rough time.
Alyssa Thomas is good. She can bully anyone on either side. But Junkel Jones is the most skilled player on this Sun team. They have to urge her to go. Whether it’s letting her shoot to help nullify the Aces’ big shooting advantage or running plays to get her down to the basket, Kurt Miller has to get the ball in her hands. If they don’t, Aces owners win.
Chelsea Gray is the tenth factor in the WNBA Finals
The Aces have a clear advantage in the backcourt, to the point where I won’t be talking about Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum, nor will I be talking about Courtney Williams and Natisha Hedman. All these players are good. Williams can make some big shots. Young showed huge improvement and won the most improvements. Bloom would have been on the MVP conversation if A’ja Wilson hadn’t been on aces.
But this is about Chelsea Gray. It was arguably the best post-season in league history. She can not miss. If the Sun doesn’t find a way to slow it down, that streak is already over.
Through six playoff games, Gray averages 24.0 points per game on 62.6 percent of shooting, with 59.5 percent out of 3. She has a 75.8 true shooting percentage.
look at me across schedule Data explorer, there were only two instances of a player having a true shooting percentage over 70 while averaging at least 20 points per playoff game (five games minimum), which was in 2016 when Diana Torassi averaged 23.6 points over 71.5 points . Real shooting rate.
Gray did just that while sending 46 assists in this playoff. Torassi had 14 assists in a sample of five matches. Quite simply: No one has done what Gray does. Torassi was the closest, but she didn’t add toy industry on top of things.
Can’t miss Chelsea Gray now. And it doesn’t look like she’s taking a bunch of undisputed shots. Per Synergy, 52 of Gray’s possessions in this post-season finished in vain for dribbling, while only 12 finished with fists and shots, and only three of those caught and fired looks were unguarded. (She shoots 100 percent on those three attempts.)
Making a tough shot. Smart passes. If Chelsea Gray did for Connecticut State what they did throughout the post-season, congratulations to the 2022 champion Las Vegas Ace.
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