The final week of the NFL season has finally arrived. There are a few meaningful games left to play, but we already have a pretty good idea of which teams will be competing in the postseason.
So, let’s take a step back and rate these clubs.
One of my favorite ways to do this is to look at a stat called net yards per game, which takes the average number of yards gained per game on offense, and subtracts the average number of yards given up per game on defense. The remaining number is what we call net yardage per game.
Keep in mind that net yardage per game does not take into account things like turnover rate, third conversion rate, and red zone efficiency. With that being said, it’s a great starting point for evaluating the difference.
Let’s take a look at the net yardage per playback report heading into Week 18:
Pirates are getting hotter in time
All season long, people have been waiting for the Buccaneers to become the Buccaneers we expected to see at the start of the season. Well, they might have finally arrived.
The Bucs have won two straight games to capture the NFC South, and if you look at net yards per game, they’re ninth in the NFL over each team’s last three games at +0.8.
These aren’t elite numbers, but they’re good enough to make them serious in the first round of the playoffs when they host their home stadium.
Don’t look now, but the Bucs all peaked surprisingly well in time.
Is the Bengal Jaguars from last season?
Speaking of teams starting to shine, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been playing the best football we’ve seen from them since they went to the AFC Championship in 2017.
Over the last three games, they are second in the entire NFL in net yards per game at +1.4, and Trevor Lawrence is finally starting to emerge as the first overall draft pick.
Jacksonville still has to beat its division rival, the Tennessee Titans, in the final week to make the playoffs. But, if they do, the Jaguars will be a dangerous team in the postseason.
They’re a lot like last year’s Bengals, who peaked just in time heading into the playoffs and rode that wave all the way to the Super Bowl.
They are the 6.5-point favorite on Saturday night in the deciding showdown in AFC South.
You can track Ian Bet on Betstamp here.
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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.
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