Any honest assessment of Tyler Herro requires looking at his production compared to expectations, but also how far he has really developed.
It is somewhat difficult to anticipate most NBA players under the age of 25 and build safe expectations around them. Tyler Herro is a great example of the complexities that come with bringing out the talent of young players.
Part of the story is the fact that Herro exceeded expectations early on and moved the goalposts. Although his progress is still bullish, it hasn’t been as fast as some fans had expected or hoped for.
With three years in the books, Herro had a great start on paper. He made the All-Rookie in his first season and was the sixth man of the year award. He stunned in the 2020 Bubble Playoffs, averaging nearly 20 points per game in the Eastern Conference Finals for the team that beat the Boston Celtics, including a 37-point performance in Game Four, this early exit team may have made a change Unfairly gauge expectations towards the absurdity of Hiro.
As a rookie, Herro was viewed due to his physical and athletic limitations. His short wingspan makes him a defender no matter how much effort he puts in, and as much as he was on the offensive end, he struggled to become even a regular defender. Any expectations for his game should be set against this backdrop as it will not only limit his actual performance but also his confidence and playing time as long as he is with a Miami Heat that has a strong defensive culture. Miami has ranked in the top 10 in discount points allowed in all but one of the last 13 seasons.
The only top-flight season where Miami wasn’t allowed in the top 10? The year of the Hiro outbreak. With things returning to normal in the Hit culture, it seemed like Herro was back on Earth. But is it so? Honestly, Herro’s performance was incredibly linear for such a young player. It’s just a perception of his performance that seems to have lost expectations and risen and fallen.
Herro has been so good in his rookie season that he quickly becomes a scapegoat for comparison – at least until he is traded or gets a contract extension – to the Heat, who has often been in a race to trade for the league’s biggest stars. This summer they engaged in discussions of Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell, neither of whom materialized in Miami. Herro is the logical piece released in such a deal, especially since he has yet to receive a contract extension which makes dealing with him even more difficult in terms of the salary cap.
Fans of competitive teams rarely have the patience to temper expectations for players who do well, especially with younger players. For proven vets, these fans expect at least stable play. For the growing young players, they expect huge leaps in the coming years. This fan-dependent anticipation is prevalent when the commercial piece floated is in deals for Durant. Suddenly, the perceived opportunity cost of being listed equals one of the top five players in the league, fair or not.
Tyler Hero should be compared to expectations and to himself
Examining the reality of Herro’s career is essential to understanding and appreciating how awesome he is, and why Miami might want to hold on to him for a while longer instead of continuing to inflict him on stellar trade opportunities.
Consider Herro’s expected wins over replacement from FiveThirtyEight Compared to his actual war:
After a stellar rookie season, his WAR showing jumped dramatically to nearly 4. For context, Ja Morant was projected at 3.4 last year.
In fact, comparing the projected war forecast against Ja Morant – drafted in the same year – helps paint a picture of how exceeding first-year expectations can make expectations in future years unrealistically high.
With the high and low expectations for Herro versus the smooth progression of Morant’s forecast in the first three years, we get impression Herro’s play itself is fickle. But this is not the case.
Let’s go back to the first graph but remove the prediction line and just display actual Hero’s War:
It’s on an upward trend and has been throughout his career. In a sport that experienced an extensive sophomore slump, it is admirable that Herro was able to not only improve but improve constantly, especially for his peers.
There is no player on the island, so it’s only fair to look at Herro’s performance on the field in context. Criticizing his performance in the playoffs last year makes sense given that he is on a competitive team. In fairness, the FiveThirtyEight seasonal forecast is quantitative rather than qualitative.
But in public discourse, these expectations are being pushed and pulled by the forces of out-of-court drama such as commercial speculation and rumor, which is wholly unfair.
The list of possible comparisons for Herro is endless. You can compare him to his fellow winger, Duncan Robinson. You can compare him to his fellow recruiters, as I already did. You can compare it to players nominated in trade discussions like Kevin Durant.
I would suggest, however, that the best way to enjoy Tyler Herro is to appreciate his game, the consistency of what he brings to the table, and the ability with which he performed as the sixth man. He may not jump to the All-Star level next year, but he has to get better, and for once, can’t we be satisfied with a player who commits to improving every year?
This year, Herro is likely to trade close to the deadline or receive a contract extension from the Heat. While it would be tempting to add an instant upgrade in exchange for Herro, Miami would be wise to realize what they have: a young goalkeeper who is constantly improving.
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