Steph Curry’s injury gives us an opportunity to see Jordan Paul as the centerpiece of Golden State’s offense. Is he ready for this responsibility?
The cornerstone of the Golden State Warriors dynasty (a fellow some know as Stephen Curry) has missed the last seven games due to injury, yet somehow, the unit has managed a 4-3 record over that span.
Basketball is a team game, but one can’t help but credit the event to the prolific play of Jordan Paul, who was the team’s primary offensive option in Curry’s absence, and averaged 27.6 points per game on a 56.9 true shooting percentage in this stretch.
More amazingly, this isn’t the first time Poole has filled Curry’s void when he’s unavailable. Over the past two seasons, in the 27 regular season games he’s played without Curry, Paul has averaged 26.3 points per game on a real shooting percentage of 58.5 (above-average efficiency over the past two years).
These numbers raise the question – is Paul capable of being the full-time first choice in his team?
For the context of this discussion, when we bring up the “first choice” label, we’re talking about the offensive end of the conversation. In general, in order to be number one on offense full time, you must master two languages: scoring and playmaking.
Can Jordan Paul get enough buckets?
Despite being only 23 years old, Paul is already one of the most complete scorers in the league.
On the ball, he can direct an effective attack at all three levels. While his first step isn’t as deadly as, say, Anthony Edwards’, he’s fast enough to get to the edge and finish whenever he wants.
If opponents lock his drives to the rim, he has no problem stopping and pressing up for a mid-range jump. He ranks 74th in efficiency for his position in all mid-range attempts (both short and long), according to Cleaning the Glass.
And although his 3-point percentage is down this year, his 86.6 percent conversation rate from the charity bar (a strong sign of a player’s ability to shoot) means he should go back to his previous score.
Off the ball, it’s no secret that Warriors style his actions The same way they do Curry, spreading it around in perpetual sorting, curling, and cutting until a high-value opportunity appears.
Paul’s combination of scoring on and off the ball makes him a versatile weapon, as he can support weaker formations by taking matters into his own hands and coexist alongside more ball-dominant second and third choices by moving without the rock on his possession.
So Jordan Paul scores like a first-choice, but can he pass like a first-choice too?
A little warning: Scoring and Gamemaking are not entirely separate skills. Quite the contrary, these two disciplines go hand in hand more than once.
Great scoring can give you a playmaking advantage because you’re constantly getting the attention of extra defenders, opening up opportunities to draw the attention of your loosely guarded teammates. At the same time, poor scoring can hamper one’s playmaking prowess because teams will fall behind players and play the passing lane and dare them to beat them by scoring.
Paul’s recording brings him closer to the first description than to the second. Along with running the same plays as Curry, Paul also gets similar levels of attention from the defense, usually having two defenders shove him on any given check, which leads to easy coins like this:
Outside of these simpler abstracts, Poole is adept at identifying and implementing more high-value discoveries. His dazzling grip, eccentric creativity, and ability to enter the paint whenever his heart desires makes him a formidable inside passer who can hook up teammates with lofty glances around the rim.
Pass types are not a problem for him. Jordan Paul can pull off almost any pass in the book (although I’d argue he feels better on open passes than he does on 3s). His real flaw in the gaming industry lies in the scale of his creativity.
One stat we intentionally left out so far is that in the 27 games Paul has played without Curry over the past two seasons, he’s averaged 5.0 assists per game. This is not a good indication that he is creating a large number of chances for his teammates.
A more accurate statistic for this type of analysis is the construction of the Ben Taylor Fund, which estimates the number of shots a player makes to teammates per 100 possessions with not only their passing but also their charisma and ability to distort the defense. As it stands, Poole’s Box Creation sits at an 8.7. This is a solid creation volume – putting it in the same vein as Tyrese Maxey, Kyrie Irving, and D’Angelo Russell – but it’s a significant step below the number one true blue choices.
For example, Curry makes an estimated 14.5 catches for his teammates per 100 possessions. And while Curry is on a whole other level, other key guards like Ja Morant, Darius Garland, Shai Gigleous Alexander, and Jalen Brunson score significantly higher as well.
To catapult himself solidly into full-time first-choice status, Paul will need to ramp up the scale of his creations. However, thanks to his youthful vigor and all the skills we highlighted above, this development is not out of the realm of possibility.
Indeed, given how quickly Paul has progressed as an NBA player—going from one of the worst players in the association, to Curry’s impressive teammate, to the one now able to temporarily assume his predecessor’s mantle as the dynasty’s great leader—one would be wise to bet that he’s in Ultimately he becomes the surest first choice on his elite assault machine.
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